Greg_Groogan's Blog

Okay folks - It's no secret the economy is in the crapper. Plenty of reasons why and everybody on the planet has an opinion. I'll leave that issue on the back burner.

What's of more interest to me is the future. The essential question - Is this economy so deeply damaged that the strongest companies can never recover ?

If you've paused for a second, rubbed the bruises left by that tumbling 401k and concluded that sooner or later we'll crawl out of this hole, than you are with me.

Next on the agenda - what to do next ? About two years ago I moved ther bulk of my retirement savings out of the stock market because I just didn't think the level of consumerism and easy credit was sustainable. People buying houses they couldn't afford, living on plastic and home equity, all essentially betting that this party would never end.

I was right, but I almost wish I was wrong.

The correction has been much more severe than I anticpated, the unresolved danger more sinister.

The way I see it noone seems top know what anything is worth anymore and that uncertainty is paralyzing everything.

I have chosen not to be scared stiff. Look, I'm no financial brainiac, but I do know that nearly 7 billion people are not going to stop needing stuff. 7 billion people can't revert back to a 19th century style of living. Eventually, they will rationalize buying again. Maybe not next week or next month or even next year, but eventually.

That's why I'm shopping for companies that sell stuff modern societies can't do without. Commodities like copper, iron, metals, energy. The bottom has fallen out of these markets. Stock in the companies that possess these finite materials are selling for prices few would have thought imaginable six months ago.

Of course, I could be dead wrong and eventually dead broke.

But do we think China and India won't resurrect demand ? Do we think the era of modernization is dead in the water ?

This is a chance to buy low, I just hope to someday enjoy the thrill of selling high.

P.S. I'm not betting the ranch.

Remember that near endless stream of credit card offers? Remember the constant barrage of pitch men pleading with you to take a home equity loan? How about those guys who said "no credit, no problem" ?

It really was like everyone was convinced they were too smart to be the last man holding the bag when Americans finally hit rock bottom after spending money they hadn't yet made like a bunch of drunken sailors on crack.

Remember watching people move into homes with mortgages they couldn't pay 30 months much less 30 years ? What exactly were we thinking ?

Remember seeing people pull up in $35,000 vehicles financed for 72 or 80 months ? What were we thinking then ?

Americans shaking their fists at greedy bankers and asleep-at-the-wheel-bought-and-paid-for politicians should also look in the mirror.

The truth is noone forced anybody to borrow a dime, to buy a single gadget or a single sub-prime tract home.

We, as a nation, are the predictable victims of our own insatiable desire for more "stuff" and the often hollow insistence that getting it will somehow make us happier.

Now, we are all left "holding the bag" together.

 

Wonder why Houston isn't hurting near as bad as the rest of the country ?

The answer is three letters long.

 O-I-L.

 A bit of rough research revealed that the combined market capitalization of just twenty Houston based energy companies has risen well north of a TRILLION dollars.

Toss in the thousands of smaller outfits that make their living in the oil patch, the big boys with major assets here (BP, SHELL, EXXONMOBILE, CHEVRON, Schlumberger etc.) and all the accountants, lawyers and suppliers who minister to their needs and my guess is the number moves well beyond 2 TRILLION dollars.

And all that without even considering  the refiners, the pipeline companies, the power generators, the traders and the transporters.

 Good paying jobs, stock options, beefy bonus checks and no indication that the flush times are coming to a close anytime soon.

 For the past few years the experts have pretty much agreed that that the energy industry is responsible for about half of Houston's economy.

 Considering the escalating values and bulging bottom lines of nearly every enterprise involved with petroleum and natural gas it's hard to see how the oil patch piece of the overall Houston pie won't get even larger.

 And then there's the other half of the Houston puzzle - businesses aching from higher fuel prices, tighter credit and customers who have fewer spare dollars to spend.

 Should they resent the oil patch's prosperity ? Hardly.

Experts say well compensated energy folks have helped keep the Houston real estate market from experiencing the severe slide that's underway in much of the country.

The effect is a preservation of home value for everyone.

 In other words, imagine what Houston would be like if energy wern't booming.

 One final observation.

 As if the lessons of the past have finally sunk in, this unprecedented accumulation of wealth appears to be occurring at very low volume.

 Folks prospering, quietly. 

    

 

  

 Road relishing, Truck lovin' Texans are having an unwelcome change of heart.

New poll numbers from the Texas Lyceum tell us how deep a toll escalating gas prices are exacting from Lone Star Staters.

Turns out 66% are strongly considering buying a more fuel efficient vehicle (translation - smaller rig).

Turns out more than 53% are strongly considering making use of  public transportation and even more (63%) are willing now to carpool.

I found this number particularly interesting - 75% now support a regional rail system linking Texas cities.

(Did you get that Southwest Airlines ?)

Don't like tolls ? You have plenty of company. 66% of your fellow citizens oppose them on new roads with the number rising to 69% when you toss in existing highways.

How bad are folks hurting ? According to the Texas Lyceum poll, more than half of Texas families are considering not taking a summer vacation trip.

That's bad.

  

 

 

In a world of mindboggling complexity there is tremendous comfort in simple, effective truths.

While listening to Former Secretary of State James Baker speak to an audience gathered by the Gulen Institute I was fortunate enough to absorb a concise yet powerful piece of wisdom.

Baker says "Leadership is knowing what to do and then doing it."

 He went on to say this direction is as sound and applicable a course of action within ones family, work place and congregation as it is for those making decisions that will impact billions of people around the globe.

 Baker prescribed prayer for those who seek both the wisdom to "know what to do" and  the strength demanded to do it.

He challenged all within earshot to "make a history" with our lives, a history that will be viewed and judged by our grandchildren and great-grandchildren.

In "making this history" the former secretary urged an uncompromising commitment to core values and a refusal to surrender to the erosive force of pessimism.

 When I returned to the newsroom a colleague asked, "How was the speech ?".

 My answer -  Good enough to stick in my mind for the foreseeable future.

  

 

“I don't believe my role is to replace the verdict of a jury with my own," - George W. Bush on why he signed death warrants for 152 inmates as governor of Texas, quoted in his book “A Charge to Keep.”

 While the dust is settling on the president's decision to commute Scooter Libby's prision sentence this 8-year-old quote from George W.  regenerated the bad taste in my mouth.

 Funny thing about the record - it just doesn't go away.

 What do you think ? 

 

 

The Immigration deal cratered under the weight of  what  many  citizens saw as 12 million free rides for those whose first encounter with America involved breaking it's law.

But that doesn't mean everything in the legislative package should be kicked to the curb. There appears to be consensus on both sides of the aisle and on most main streets that beefing up the Border Patrol will be more than worth a billion or two.

30 Thousand new agents won't stop illegal entries - but it can certainly plug holes where the flow of undocumented humanity from the south is currently gushing through. That's not to mention denting more deeply the steady onslaught of narcotics smuggled daily across the border.

The Mexican government reports MORE people now leave for the U.S. every year - many of them permenantly - then die in that country. Northern migration in excess of national mortality.

So who should fill these new border enforcement ranks ? Why not give immediate and continuing preference to those who've already put their life on the line in what many still see as a war on terror. Hundreds of thousands of veterans will return from the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan. Skilled, motivated, experienced and deeply committed men and women whom taxpayers have already invested billions training.

Many of these soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines will decide to leave the military but not their commitment to country and security.

As Border Patrol Agents these returning veterans represent a genuine and potentially powerful pool of law enforcers. The nations leadership has an opportunity. Whether it is exploited or squandered could offer yet another litmus test for the get-tough rhetoric that's become standard fare from those we've elected.

  

 

 

  

 

 

Your news stories that is.

 Here's how it is. I'm what they call a "long format type" which means my pieces usually run around two and a half or three minutes. Most other reporters are limited to about 1:30 give or take a few seconds.

Sure, more story telling time allows me to delve deeper, illuminate personalities more fully and showcase, to some extent, a more descriptive, albeit less economic, style of writing. Added length also allows my gifted photographers and editors to incorporate a greater degree of  image and sound - what I call pure oxygen - into the lifeblood of the  tale.

When it's done right - the reporting finds a home in the memory and conversations of our viewers.

When it doesn't - many react with a slight movement of the thumb on their remote control... and they are gone.

That's why fewer and fewer newsroom decision makers are willing to take the risk.

Better to populate newscasts with dozens of  short, snappy stories - that way if a viewer gets an itchy remote finger on one item they may just stick around for the next rapid fire offering. 

A little about alot - a headline service with limited ability to relay any substantial understanding.

Consultants argue that's what a majority of  viewers prefer.. and when money is on the line - businesses tend to give consumers what they WANT as opposed to what they NEED. 

I'm grateful to my news director and station manager for the opportunity they offer me - the Risk they take regularly and willingly in pursuit of a story, well told.   

How do you stand ? Are you willing to kick to the curb a half dozen thirty second items in exchange for storytelling which seeks to resonate beyond - who, what, where, when and why ?

 

 

 

 

  

 

Sunday morning - what some have called the most segregated hour in America.

 A time when citizens in this country gather to worship - often with  people that look pretty much like themselves. Many, over the generations, have found comfort in this sameness and shared experience.

This past Sunday I thought about this oft repeated observation as I sat among my congregation at  St. Thomas More Catholic Church. There before my eyes was an absolute contradiction of  the national norm.

 Certainly, there were caucasions like myself - but their numbers  were more than matched by a collection of faces reflecting the world in which I live and work . I saw  first generation African immigrants born in places like Nigeria, but now making homes and lives in  Houston.  I saw Hispanic families whose roots run south to Mexico, El Salvador and Nicaragua. I saw worshippers with cultural ties to the Phillipines and Vietnam. And I saw Black Americans whose ancestors had celebrated mass in and around hurricane ravaged New Orleans for the past three centuries.

 It was, I thought with satisfaction, the most INTEGRATED hour of my life, spent  surrounded by folks bound by a faith which transcends the earthly differences with which humans divide and sub-divide.

 Comfort - redefined.

  

  

  

 

I read a couple years ago that the average American kid will badger his parents up to 60 times for the same concession before the "no" turns to a "YES" in what amounts to an attrition-driven fold by weary mothers and fathers. Those same Moms and Dads hearken back to their own childhoods recalling a stricter, less permissive time when "No meant NO, no arguing, no whining". And yet the widespread cave-in-to-kids continues. Rationalized as an expression of love or more pragmatically as a path to temporary peace through appeasement. Many even resort to material "bribes" or less cynically the promise of "rewards" as a new millennium parenting tactic to persuade children to do what they are told. Experts say kids on the receiving end of this practice often adopt an attitude of "entitlement" and develop a habit of negotiating pay-offs for everything from acceptable grades to decent behavior. So lets hear it - Have American parents gone soft to the detriment of their children ? Or are "rewards" just a reflection of the adult world they will one day enter, a daily competition where solid performance is answered with material gain ? I'm looking to explore this issue in a Fox in Focus segment and would welcome folks willing to share their experiences.

I was reminded of this popular warning this past Sunday at church when I noticed a young fellow sitting next to me sporting a nice polo-style shirt emblazoned with the logo of the now dead-and-buried accounting firm ARTHUR ANDERSEN.

In the wake of the massive greed driven scandal it was clearly the kind of gear  that was relegated to either the back of the closet, the dust rag pile or offered on ebay as a collector's item. Only a masochist or a principled 'we were innocent and I don't care what you think"' type would actually wear the stuff on the streets of Houston.

BUT...A few years have passed. Ken Lay's dead. Jeff Skilling, Andrew Fastow and a handful of others are doing time. Many of the rank and file casualties have found new work and just want to forget.

It begs the question....Is it time to give folks a free pass to sentimentally sport their Enron and Arthur gear ?

Should we even care what they came to represent ? Some may perceive the infamous corporate logos with a degree of resentment equal to that felt by those offended by the confederate stars & bars or even the nazi swastika. 

It's often said wounds heal with time. Has this one ? 

They say he committed to sign it, but now backers of HB1919 say Governor Rick Perry is sending out indications he may destroy with his veto pen the biggest step forward for Texas kids with Autism in years.

HB1919 as passed by the legislature lays the foundation for forcing reluctant health insurance companies to cover a whole range of therapies advocates contend are critical for kids with autism, especially those in the critical brain development years between ages two and five.

Access to these therapies - the experts contend - could spell the difference between a young person developing into an independent, employed adult or continuing a steady spiral into life-long dependence at a multi-million dollar eventual cost to taxpayers.

So - Governor Rick Perry has a fairly simple choice - either become a hero to the financially strapped families of the thousands of kids challenged by autism ....or succumb to the influence and arguements of those forces looking to minimize the services available to these incredibly vulnerable young people.

Good or Greed - It may just be that simple. 

 

 

 

Just when it looked like families with kids challenged by autism would walk away from the legislative session empty handed - Lawmakers managed to deliver in the clutch what looks like an enormous step forward in a fight that effects one out of every 150 children.

 With three hours to spare HB1919 cleared both chambers. Aboard the bill an amendment re-defining autism in the Texas Insurance Code. In the past this crippling condition has been labeled a serious "mental" or behavorial ailment. As far as Health Insurers were concerned that excluded from coverage a whole host of  treatments and therapies those battling autism consider crucial. With the stroke of his pen Governor Rick Perry will change all that.

When it comes to a child's hyper-critical developmental  years between the ages of three and five - Autism will soon be defined as "medical neurobiological " condition.

What does this mean ? Well, at the very least children in desperate need of early intervention can count on health insurers paying for a whole host of therapies including applied behavorial analysis - a strategy thats produced tremendous outcomes for thousands of kids.

In Texas desperate parents now and in the past have literally impoverished themselves providing these therapies out of pocket - Monday in Austin, Big Insurance was apparently  forced  to step up to the plate.

Okay folks, how big a deal is this ? I want to hear from those who know this ground-breaking legislation well  and hear questions and concerns from those who don't. 

 

 

  

  

As I follow developments in the final weeks of the Texas Legislative session I am reminded of the six odd years I spent covering the making and unmaking of  Lone Star law.

One very passionate debate that sticks in my mind from the early and mid- 90's involved the eventual passage of whats come to be known as the CONCEALED CARRY LAW.

I remember clearly the horrifying scenarios painted on the floor of the Texas senate. Gun play on every corner, thousands of disputes settled with high caliber weapons instead of words, a blood bath.

Didn't happen. Not even close. Instead what rings far more true are the words of concealed carry propnents - licensed handgun owners are not the folks to be feared.

 

 

 

 

They've spent a million dollars and they'd spend twenty times more if they had it. Hilda and Jeff Bowen are at war - a fight that's unlikely to end as long as they draw breath. There son Patrick's autism is certainly the enemy, but it's an enemy that's gathered allies.

Health insurance companies hiding behind cryptic definitions and enabled by a legion of shiny-shoed lobbyists continue to shirk the responsibility of paying for critical services. It appears they'd prefer to stockpile profits then help those on the spectrum reach their potential and their parents avoid bankruptcy.

 

Hilda Bowen looked me square in the eye and asked "Why is it people who get AIDS by sharing needles and people who choose to smoke and get lung cancer are fully covered and kids with autism are not ?"

Where is the justice ? Where are the Lawmakers who promised to provide it ?

If the Autism bills all die in this budget surplus year - there will be a reckoning.

Faces and names will be offered to attach the blame. That's my job.