500 - that's how many Texans were part of a Rassmussen survey that inspired the pollster to declare incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn "vulnerable."
The findings darn sure caught our attention. The May 1st gauge has Cornyn just three percentage points ahead of Democrat Rick Noriega, an Afghan War veteran and state lawmaker, little known outside the city limits of Houston.
With limited name ID and no personal fortune to tap Noriega's task of of unseating Cornyn seems gargantuan in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bensten.
But the answers of Rasmussen's 500 scientifically selected respondents could just be the kind of spark that can ignite a smoldering insurgency.
The "within striking distance numbers" would seem to be the kind of data Lt. Col. Noreiga's folks can take to big donors here in the Lone Star State and across the country.
The demographics are compelling - Noreiga is a slam dunk to get the lions-share of the Texas Hispanic vote. That's a no-brainer. But Noreiga should also harvest the down ballot benefit of an enormous African-American turn-out drawn by Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
Consider also that Noreiga, the moderate, probably has more in common politically with John McCain than with the left leaning Senator from Illinois. (Noriega may disagree, but not to vehemently).
It's the kind of positioning that could draw plenty of independents in the "mushy middle" of the Texas electorate, folks looking for a change and comfortable with the idea of a Senator from each party representing the Lone Star State. These are some of the same voters that could comfortably vote McCain for president, Noriega for senate.
What Noreiga doesn't have is much notoriety and that's why money will be so critical. TV ads - lots of TV ads.
John Cornyn will have plenty of bank and a well organized party machine backing him. But he's also been at the helm as foreclosures escalate, rising gas prices eat up a bigger chunk of paychecks, immigration remains an intractable mess and American blood continues spilling in Iraq, for reasons that elude many here at home.
We may well look back at the 500 as nothing more than a foot note.
But maybe not.
| Member Comments | Total Comments: 8 |
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PBMom
May 9, 2008 | 6:56 PM |
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redtractortom
May 12, 2008 | 9:13 PM |
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Greg_Groogan
May 12, 2008 | 11:25 PM |
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redtractortom
May 13, 2008 | 3:27 PM |
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redtractortom
May 13, 2008 | 3:34 PM |
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Greg_Groogan
May 13, 2008 | 3:49 PM |
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redtractortom
May 13, 2008 | 6:03 PM |
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redtractortom
May 13, 2008 | 10:35 PM |
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For as long as I can remember, all I've cared about is telling stories about Texans and what matters to them. These days that's pretty much all I do, so I guess I'm livin' the dream. Toss in 2 toddlers and a wife and my life is full to the brim. I'm greedy, I know there are great untold stories out there and I want them all. Help me do it.
Member Since: 3/20/2007